'The whole world is in a terrible state of chassis [chaos]'. Vigilant readers might complain that I have quoted this before. True, but I make no apology. In current circumstances, that sentence comes to me about every ten waking minutes. It originates from Ireland, which is appropriate, for the Irish have always produced more history than they could consume. Now, the same is true of almost the entire world. We are in a mess.
Since 1914, Western history can roughly be divided into four periods. First, there was the second fall of man which lasted until 1945. Nietzsche wrote that if you stare back into the abyss for long enough, it will stare back at you. By the end of the Second World War that had happened. The First World War laid out the playing-field for the next one. In 1945, there seemed every reason to believe that something similar would happen again, and Orwell's 1984 was a plausible prophecy.
Yet mankind did crawl away from the abyss - though not for a creditable reason. There was no moral improvement, merely atomic and nuclear weaponry. Without that, there might indeed have been a third terrible war in Europe, leaving that continent's civilisation in terminal ruin. Men were ready to forswear war, not because they had learned lessons. Original sin and homo homini lupus remained as true as ever, but there were limits. Mutually assured destruction saved us from destruction.
After 1945, there was a further factor. The Americans were ready to save Western Europe from itself. The late General Vernon (Dick) Walters had a party piece which he would use to make facile anti-American European liberals squirm, 'I understand why you want us Yanks to go home' he would say. 'We did that in 1919 and you had a wonderful 25 years. We stayed around in 1945 and you've had a terrible time since then. No wonder you want to see the back of us.'
In their attitude to the USA, many Europeans ought to be ashamed of their ingratitude. They forgot how big the US is, and how far from Europe. Given all that, it is surprising that there was not more isolationism during the 1930s. A lot of Americans could not see why they should feel obliged to keep on expending blood and treasure to rescue Europe, and wondered when the Europeans would learn to clean up their own mess. Between them, Hitler and Stalin killed isolationism yet many Europeans remained disdainful of their rescuers.
They blamed the Americans for taking so long to come into both World Wars. It was as if they regarded the USA as similar to Canada, Australia and New Zealand, who rushed to the aid of the mother country. Many Brits assumed that in the UK's hour of need, the US would take on dominion status.
There was a price to pay for the American alliance. In the UK and France, some of the old Right disliked America's growing predominance. Kipling invited the Americans to 'Take up the white man's burden.' To an extent, so they did but they also took away the white men's empires, which was resented. The old Right also tended to talk down to the Americans in the spirit of the wartime doggerel: 'Said Lord Halifax to Lord Keynes/ They have all the money-bags but we have all the brains.' Evelyn Waugh, an arch-member of the old Right, expressed his contempt for Americans both in The Loved One and in the Sword of Honour trilogy with three unlovely American journalists, Bum Schlum, Scab Dunz and Joe Mulligan. The man in the street's version was 'over-paid, over-sexed and over here.'
Somewhat later, Suez did not endear the surviving members of the old Right to the Americans and also destroyed any possibility of a new Anglo-French entente cordiale. The defeat at Suez swept away the illusion that the two European allies were still superpowers. 'No end of a lesson:' we British learned it and tried to ensure that the special relationship survived, which it mostly has. The French refused to forgive the Americans, tried to resurrect the superpower illusion and intended to use Europe to retain top-table status. There would be a French jockey on a German horse, one reason why the Gaullists were never enthusiastic about British membership of Europe.
Anyway, despite awkwardnesses, the second phase of post-1914 history went far better than anyone predicted in 1945. Europe settled down under the Cold War. 'Ban the bomb,' Lefties would demand. Yet the Bomb became a bomb shelter and the West won the Cold War.
Phase three: splendid, even triumphant and all too brief. George Bush senior proclaimed a new world order. Francis Fukuyama welcomed the end of history. John Major called for a nation at ease with itself. Under Yeltsin and early Putin, there seemed to be the possibility of enticing Russia into an international framework of trade and legality. The same might apply to China. The Nixon/Kissinger ambition of a détente with Beijing did not seem impossible. Lots of dreams: if only they had come true.
Instead we awoke from the dreams and everything went wrong. At the worst possible moment, then came Donald Trump, the harbinger of phase four. Sometime around 1980, the late and wonderful Midge Decter once addressed a conference of European Atlanticists and Conservatives. She asked if we all wanted the Americans to stay in Europe. We were unanimous: of course. 'In that case, you're going to have to ask us real nice.'
Outside that audience, few did. Most of Europe went on patronising the Americans. A lot of senior Americans overlooked that and retained an exasperated sentimental affection for the old continent. But Mr Trump does not do sentiment, with the possible exception of the British Royal Family. God Bless King Charles. There is also golf, so let us hope that the President does not lose his balls. Mr Trump is only interested in deals. Meanwhile his Vice-President did his sums. J.D. Vance did not see why the Europeans had to depend so heavily on the US for their defence. The deal-making President concurs.
So phase four is the new world disorder and it is impossible to work out what happens next. A lot of Europeans now wonder whether we will ever be able to trust the Americans. Although I think that this is too pessimistic, things will be different. We are in the midst of instability and danger. The Cold War at least brought certainty. It will be some time before that returns.