A year really is a long time in politics. At this time last year, morale in the Tory party was about as rare as an orange in 1943. For nearly two centuries, the Tories had been the most formidable electoral machine in the world, in power more often than not. But when would those days return? Could an organisation suffer the equivalent of biological death? Back then, that did not seem impossible.
Leading the Conservative party in opposition is just about the hardest job in British politics. Government ministers can do things. Tory opposition leaders have to spend a lot of time listening to moans and grumbles. Given that Tories regard opposition as an unnatural state of affairs, the leadership must be to blame. A year ago, there was a lot of blame around, and little confidence in Kemi Badenoch. 'We can't go on changing leaders every few months' was a frequent refrain. 'We'd look ridiculous if we did it again. But will this girl ever come good?'
'This girl' was determined to defy the sceptics and display her strength. That said, there were surely moments of self-doubt. Barely in her mid-Forties, she must have wondered whether she had been crazy to take on the leadership now. Would she not end up as William Hague II, or even - God help her - IDS II, with a brilliant future behind her before she was 50? If she never had dark moments in the small hours along those lines, she is even tougher than she seems. But any such doubts were confided to her pillow or her husband: no-one else.
Toughness: at this moment of Tory gloom, she took a bold and risky strategic decision. Many of her own MPs would complain that no-one knew who she was or what she believed. Where were the policies? She had a simple answer to that: wait and see. She saw the way in which Sir Stumbler bumbled from u-turns to indecisiveness, because he had given no thought to the agenda of government (though he would probably have been little use if he had). She was not going to make that mistake. She knew that Margaret Thatcher had devoted a lot of energy to policy-making. She would do the same. So she has. This column will review the outcome later in the week.
There is a further crucial point to make about Mrs Badenoch's toughness. She has more intellectual self-confidence than Mrs Thatcher did at the same phase in her career. All this has put a spring back in the Tory party's step. The grumbling has virtually ceased. Just about every Tory now insists that he always had faith in her. Hmmm. But her performance has also helped her to win respect from the commentariat. No-one whose opinion is worth considering is now dismissing her as a nonentity. Yet there is still one problem. The opinion polls have not noticed. Her personal rating has improved, but the party is not yet back where it was in the 2024 disaster. When will that change? I am regularly asked to predict the political future. My reply is always the same. 'I'll have a go at the past if you want. As for the future: British electoral politics today is a sphinx wrapped in a riddle wrapped in an enigma.'
For decades the two-party system and first past the post voting meant that people knew where they were. For better or worse, our arrangements offered certainty and the possibility of strong government. Now? Nor is this just a British phenomenon. Consider Germany, France and Spain. Admittedly, their parties are less rooted than ours but even so, they seem to be facing confusion worse confounded. There is an irony, already noted here. For decades, Italian politics appeared to be in a state of comical chaos. We patronising Brits enjoyed the comedy. 'Who is your Prime Minister this week?' we would say to an Italian. 'Does anyone know? Does anyone care?'
These days, Signora Meloni is not only building up seniority. She could claim to be the most effective leader in the West. Who would have thought it?
As usual, they order things differently in the US. Their party system is buttressed by the appalling cost of entry. Even so, some interesting independents are running in Congressional races. It will be surprising if none of them win.
It is also worth remembering that the American system can throw up unpredictability. In early 1991, George Bush senior's poll ratings were around ninety percent. He seemed to be heading for a shoo-in. So the most formidable Democrats - Howard Baker, Bill Bradley, Sam Nunn and others - decided to sit out the 1992 Election and wait for next time. They had reckoned without Bush's 'Read my lips. No new taxes.' The voters did their reading, and there were. There was also that boil on the backside of the Great Republic, Ross Perot. So the Democrats left the field to a little-known Governor from a small state, and Bill Clinton became President.
Back to England (the rest of the UK is different). The first obvious point is the widespread disillusion with politics and politicians: the widespread belief that they are all the same, only in it for themselves, and that none of them are any good. Throughout the land, there is a lot of Piddington-itis and a growing danger that people will feel like withdrawing consent from government and the law. 'If they're no use, why should we do what they say?' We Brits are used to stability and long may it endure. But we would be foolish to take it for granted.
Over to the Tory party. Unless Toryism is about patriotism, the nation and economic commonsense, it has no raison d'être and would deserve to slide into extinction. Over to Kemi Badenoch. The Tories had the first Jewish PM, the first female one and the first Asian one. In different circumstances, Rishi Sunak might have enjoyed much more success, but his pitch had been well and truly queered by Boris and by the two mesdames, May and Truss. To put it mildly, Mrs Badenoch does not look like a traditional Tory, but that need not matter. She herself has insisted that she has traditional Tory instincts. So she does. They are in her political DNA.
They are based on that uncommon attribute: common sense. She believes that taxes should be kept as low as possible, that unnecessary regulations should not obstruct business and that if we wish to see economic growth, which is vital, it would be insane to impose some of the highest energy costs in the world. She believes in high-quality public services, but not in a wasteful and over-manned civil service. That merely produces inefficiency and discontent. She also insists that welfare should be a means of delivering help to those who are in need, not a lifestyle choice for those who ought to be working.
She thinks that the Common Law has served us well and that we do not need foreign judges to help us to protect our own lives and liberties. With the ECHR, for 'protect,' read impede. Immigration is also a vital matter and not just in Piddington. Although we shall have to see what she proposes, her instincts are sound.
It is a clear message. So how does she make it credible? Robert Jenrick, the man who takes the weight out of light-weight, insists that no-one should trust the Tories because of their record. Apart from the little difficulties of an international bank crisis, Covid and Putin, he has a point. Mistakes were made, on welfare, immigration and energy. Mrs Badenoch has apologised, rightly. The question is do we listen to her, or to the ineffable Jenrick's yah-boos?
Her task is to win the air-time and she has one advantage: toughness. That should help to make her credible. Whatever Reform spokesmen say, she does not sound like a politician who would bend under pressure. Indeed, she could echo Margaret Thatcher in her early days as PM, when some people wondered if she might u-turn, as Ted Heath had. 'You turn if you like. The Lady's not for turning.' Nor is the new Lady.
Strength she has. But there is another quality which she will need to display, and quoting from Andy Burnham: hope.
Let us be fair to the PM. When he talks about hope he means it. He would like to spread it throughout the country. But there is a problem. He has no idea how to do it. Kemi has the right instincts. Andy's are all wrong. In his heart, he would like to see higher taxes, a bigger state and the further expense of a European super-state, not to mention its burdens. Yet he somehow thinks that he has a policy for growth. It is all nonsense. Abolish the 1980s: so presumably he wishes that Arthur Scargill had won the miners' strike. Hope? Hopeless, more like it.
Kemi Badenoch will have to prove that she believes in Britain, believes in the economic energy of the British people, and believes in true hope, grounded in realism. None of that should be hard. It is who she is and what she believes. As for the electoral sphinx, we shall have to see. I believe that she has what it takes to give the country what it needs. Mount Psephos is a daunting peak. But she may turn out to be a dauntless mountaineer.