Confusion worse confounded. Anyone hoping for a return to political stability in British politics still has a lot of hoping to do. It was not so many years ago that we British prided ourselves on authoritative centralised institutions, buttressed by a party system that generally produced strongish governments and prime ministers who could enjoy a reasonable tenure of office. We used to chuckle at the charming vagaries of less fortunate nations, especially the Italians. No longer.
So what has gone wrong? The short answer would appear to be everything. Some of us always had doubts about devolution. Its adherents, especially in Scotland, insisted that it would buttress the Union and see off the Scots Nats. Those hopes have turned into fantasies.
In a rational world, that ought not to be true. The locals would have expected good government and turn on those who failed to deliver it. But both Scotland and Wales have put up with governments which are more expensive than the prevailing arrangements in England yet deliver worse services. That is especially true in education. Both Scotland and Wales used to pride themselves on their schools, which ranked high in international league tables and were successful in raising up able children from poor backgrounds. In recent years, they have both fallen below England and indeed Northern Ireland, as well as in international comparisons. That ought to be a source of national shame, yet the politicians responsible have gone unpunished.
There are a number of reasons for this. The first, which also applies in England, has been a change in political culture. Although voters may have lost faith in the established parties, they still want some quasi-religious political faith to cling on to. We saw that with the brief flourish of Corbynism. We now have the Greens - latter-day Corbynistas - and the Nationalist parties. It is easy for Nationalists to cloak their incompetence in trappings which offer uplift. This even applies to Nigel Farage. Even if it might seem absurd to speak of him in terms of religion, he is offering a secular faith. A lot of his supporters want to believe in him. They are willing him to succeed and allegations about donations et al have no effect on the Reform faithful.
Where does this leave the rest? The Liberals remain the spittoon party, a receptacle for the none-of-the-aboves. If you should meet a Liberal supporter, and they do exist, ask the basic question: what do you believe? As soon as it feels polite to do so, interrupt the bumbling and waffle by quoting Iain Macleod. 'The Liberals seem to have a lot of good ideas and a lot of new ideas. But there is a problem. None of their good ideas are new and none of their new ideas are any good.'
As for Labour, its leaders have often tried to inspire their followers towards a faith-filled politics. It has always been much easier than it ought to have been for Labour to claim the moral high ground. But their efforts are eventually frustrated by their failures in office. Failure in office? In the case of poor Sir Stumbler, that is a massive understatement.
It is still not clear whether he will survive. His party ought to take a decision. Unite around him and face down any dissenters - or get rid of him. That is what they should do. The probability is, however, that they will do neither and remain a mere rabble of grumblers and stumblers. Buoyed up by a mixture of anger and self pity, the Stumbler-in-chief himself seems to want to carry on. The best he could do, that is hardly likely to carry him through until the next Election
Now for the Tories. At least Kemi Badenoch has a stable party, and these elections showed no further decline in Tory support. But climbing from 20 percent to 40 percent is an awesome task. Tory leaders have never tried to advance their cause by seeking a religious buttress, partly because most of them believed in a religion which was above politics. Admittedly, there was a time when the Church of England could be described as the Tory Party at prayer, but that era is over and probably beyond revival. The Tories must make do with a largely areligious politics.
In her endeavours, Mrs Badenoch has a recent problem, but also a long-term asset. The problem arises from events. In 2010, the Tories had to deal with the world banking crisis. Then came Covid, followed by Putin, and compounded by a succession of weak Prime Ministers. Post-Cameron, none of them could hack it. If Rishi Sunak had been given a chance instead of Boris's descent into nonsense, he would at least have done a lot better. We will never know much better. There is always the suspicion that as a politician, he was more of a Wykehamist. Even so, his Party's reputation would be much higher, were it not for Johnson and Truss.
In rebuilding that reputation, Kemi has one plus. She does not look like a traditional Tory. But she should be able to draw on a traditional Tory theme: realism. There were times when commentators assessed the Tory/Labour contest as the man with no heart versus the man with no head. That worked to the Tories' benefit. When they reach 25 or over, increasing numbers of people reluctantly opt for politicians with strong heads, rather than headless idealists who will squander their taxes while also increasing them.
So Kemi Badenoch's challenge is to prevail over the false political faiths and bring realism back to the centre of British politics. Above all, that will mean a strategy for growth, which acknowledges that we are living in a tough old world where Santa Claus will not come to the rescue. Can she hack it? Well, three years really is a long time in British politics, and the growth question will not go away. Although there are plenty of other issues on the agenda, growth is at the core. It will be the economy, stupid. She knows that. She also gives the impression of being up for the fight. Nor is it just an impression. Even formerly doubting Tories are developing a reluctant respect for their Leader. She and her team have to banish that reluctance and spread the respect more widely. Can she do it? That is far too early to tell. But she will not fail for lack of drive.